Threat of military action hangs over escalating tensions with Iran
Source: The Mercury News [San Francisco Bay Area]
2006-08-24
Excerpts:
"We are creating a situation where everything we're going to try short of military force is going to fail," said Ilan Berman, an Iran expert at the American Foreign Policy Council, which favors an aggressive approach. "By the spring of next year, we're going to be looking at very serious discussions about next steps, including military options."
"If George Bush is serious about denying Iran nuclear weapons and Iran doesn't respond to our diplomacy, then we're headed to a conflict," said Michael Rubin, an Iran expert at the American Enterprise Institute, a research center with strong ties to the "neo-conservatives" who shaped Iraq policy in the Bush administration.
"There exists a very real possibility that, if the U.S. attacks Iran, then Iran will inflict a devastating defeat upon the U.S. in Iraq, and also take the fight to the U.S. across the Middle East," concluded an analysis Wednesday by Chatham House, a respected British research center.
A unilateral U.S. strike probably would inflame world opinion anew against America. It could send global oil prices over $100 a barrel and tip the world into recession. And U.S. voters weary of war could punish Bush and his Republican Party in 2008 - as might Congress in the meantime if Democrats win control of it in November.
"When all the political and strategic pros and cons of an American military strike on Iran are taken into account, there is good reason to believe that the U.S. will stick to diplomacy," Philip Gordon, a foreign policy specialist at the Brookings Institution, a center-left research center, concluded in a recent article. "I know of almost no one who ... sees it as anything other than a last resort."
Still, Gordon added, "it would be foolish" to completely dismiss the idea that "Washington is getting ready to bomb Iran."
There are other possible scenarios. Iran might cave to international pressure and give up its uranium-enrichment programs. A diplomatic stalemate might leave the issue unresolved through Bush's term. The international community might be able to force Iran's cooperation by imposing tough economic sanctions.
That's the American game plan for the moment. U.S. diplomats are trying to come up with a package of sanctions that could win Security Council approval, but Russia and China oppose tough measures and each holds veto power. Both have strong economic ties to Iran.
Many experts think the right mix of sanctions could work. Despite the windfall it's reaped from skyrocketing oil prices, Iran's economy is shaky. Although Iran is the second-largest exporter of Middle East oil, behind Saudi Arabia, it imports about 40 percent of its refined gasoline. The government has drafted plans for fuel rationing.
"The mullahs have terribly mismanaged the economy. They're economically vulnerable," said Peter Brookes, an Iran specialist at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative research center. "The hard part, when you're talking about sanctions, is getting the Europeans to do it and getting the Chinese and the Russians not to oppose it at the Security Council."
The Security Council passed a resolution in July demanding that Iran shut down its uranium-enrichment program, but Russia and China blocked American efforts to include an automatic trigger for sanctions if Iran failed to comply.
Iran says it wants enriched uranium for nuclear power plants, not bombs, but few accept that. U.S. intelligence officials think Iran is on track to produce a nuclear weapon over the next four to nine years.
Iran's leaders show no sign of backing down on the nuclear issue. Their prestige in the region is on the rise, as Iranian support for Shiite militias in Iraq and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon has expanded Tehran's influence.
f diplomacy fails and the Iranian regime presses ahead with its nuclear program, Bush could order airstrikes, although Iran's nuclear facilities are hidden and scattered. Or he could let Israel do it; in 1981, Israel bombed a nuclear plant in Iraq to prevent it from being used to develop weapons. It's the nation most at risk from a nuclear Iran.
"Political reality may force him to punt it. His credibility is, in a sense, shot internationally. Domestically, there's no appetite for a military confrontation," said Thomas Alan Schwartz, who teaches diplomatic history at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tenn. "He might be faced with the issue of whether he wants to go out with a bang, so to speak, or leave it to his successor."
Brookes of Heritage, who agrees with Bush's zero-tolerance policy toward a nuclear-armed Iran, suggested that events may force a compromise.
"We may have to live with a nuclear Iran," he said.
